Those unaware of the chequered India-Pakistan history would have been amused by pictures of Nawaz Sharif and Narendra Modi ignoring each other at the SAARC summit. Many of them could have been forgiven for suspecting that the two leaders are sulking after a tiff on the neighbourhood playground.
The two PMs refused to acknowledge each other or make eye contact; appeared distracted and disinterested while the other made his speech and, as TV channels are reporting, agreed to shake hands only after their host Sushil Koirala intervened.
Only a few days ago, both the Prime Ministers were examples of bonhomie and bhaichara. They were exchanging calls, sending gifts like shawls and, if the Pakistan media is to be believed, their PM was resorting to mango diplomacy even when guns were blazing on the border. But, now, they don’t even bother nodding at each other.
Prime Minister Narendra Modi with his Pakistani counterpart Nawaz Sharif. Reuters
Both are justified in their profligate display of petulance. The Indian media and the Pakistan army is watching the two PMs closely and none of them can afford to show any signs of conviviality, lest it might be seen as sign of weakness. In the age of 24x7 TV and a virulent media, even a handshake is seen as a more definitive instrument of surrender than the Shimla Agreement. A mere nod of acknowledgement, or any sign of diplomatic etiquette for that matter, is a sign that both the countries are feeling a bit soft in the heart.
Consider the coverage of the event in Dainik Bhaskar, a leading Hindi daily, on Thursday. On its front page it has pictures of Sharif shutting his eyes while Modi spoke and the Indian PM flipping through a magazine while his counterpart from Pakistan reads out his speech. ‘Nazron se gire Nawaz,’ screams the headline, in a clever mix of alliteration and jingoistic rhetoric.
This isn’t the first time leaders from India and Pakistan have been forced to play to the galleries. The relation between leaders of the two countries has always followed a cyclical pattern: warmth-thaw-hope-frustration-anger-chill. The tragedy is none of these — India’s Lahore Bus initiative and Pakistan’s subsequent response, for instance—have taken the countries far. But in the absence of innovative strategies, both keep going back to the same drill.
In an essay tracking the developments after the euphoric high of Modi’s invitation to Sharif, The Diplomat magazine, calls the India-Pakistan relations ‘a destructive equilibrium.’
“… a destructive equilibrium has emerged in which both cooperative overtures and displays of deterrence by the Indian government have the potential to lead to a further detoriation of Indian and Pakistani relations,” the website argues. The blow-hot-blow-cold relation, thus, is unavoidable. And so is the inevitability of talks after this recent round of posturing.
Many analysts believe Pakistan and India are playing a fresh round of political chess on Kashmir. As part of its strategy, India wants to push Pakistan back on the contentious issue while Pakistan wants to move forward on talks on the Valley. So far both have pushed in opposite directions but none of them has ceded ground.
India, under Modi and his new National Security Advisor Ajit Doval, is hoping a tough stance will force Pakistan to return to the negotiating table on India’s terms and conditions. Pakistan too wants talks to begin, but without letting India get the upper hand. Nobody knows how the stalemate will break. But in the end, bilateral talks look inevitable. Perhaps, as some reports suggest, the ice may melt at an informal meet in the Himalayan Kingdom.
It is time for those sitting in the galleries, watching the India-Pak theatre with the zeal of war-crazed spectators, to also realize the importance (and inevitability) of bilateral talks. Everybody should understand that the journey to peace between the two begins with a simple line: Hello, Mr Prime Minister!
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