When you divide zero by any number, the answer is still zero.
The Congress has been a big zero in Tamil Nadu these past few years, and so the decision of GK Vasan, son of late Congress stalwart GK Moopanar, to quit the party and start another regional outfit in Tamil Nadu is not going to set the Kaveri on fire. It is a move of desperation rather than opportunity.
It is not clear whether the immediate provocation for Vasan's decision to break off was the result of the high command's decision to appoint his rival, former Union minister EVKS Elangoval, as TNCC chief, or because he sees no future for the party in Tamil Nadu. His statement today (3 November) announcing the split did not refer to the short-term developments that may have upset him, but the long-term ones.
According to The Hindu, he said the "actions of the All India Congress Committee (AICC) over the last few years had been 'against the sentiments' of party workers." He added: "Congress has not been in power in Tamil Nadu for the last 47 years," and hence he was keen to provide an alternative to the Dravidian parties.
PTI
The problem with this argument is that Tamil Nadu does not lack alternatives - Dravidian or otherwise. Apart from the DMK and AIADMK, there are half a dozen other parties with their acronyms ending with MK or K. There are the MDMK, the DMDK, the PMK, the TMMK (for Muslims), the KMDK, and even an IJK. Barring TMMK, the rest were BJP allies in the Lok Sabha elections, though only PMK managed to win a seat.
Vasan's late father, Moopanar, was not spectacularly successful during the last breakaway, when he formed the Tamil Manila Congress, in which even P Chidambaram was a member. But after Moopanar died, the TMC merged with its parent body.
So what will Vasan achieve that his more popular dad couldn't, and when the Congress was stronger than it is now in the state?
The backdrop against which Vasan is launching another party is the weakening of both Dravidian poles in Tamil Nadu and the rise of the BJP at the centre, with new designs in the state.
The DMK is a declining force, given the war of succession between two of the aging supremo, M Karunanidhi's sons: MK Stalin, the anointed heir, and MK Alagiri, who has been turfed out for refusing to accept Stalin as his boss. This is one reason Stalin reached out to Vaiko (V Gopalaswami) of MDMK for a possible alliance.
But corruption allegations continue to dog Karunanidhi's family, with daughter Kanimozhi now facing trial in the 2G scam. The DMK is thus a party under siege and well past its prime.
The AIADMK's future has also come under a cloud recently following J Jayalalithaa's conviction in a corruption case last month. She is appealing against the verdict, but the judgment against her appears solid. Since she has no successor, if the judgment against her is upheld and she ends up having to go to jail for four years, and she can't seek public office for 10 years, the future of the AIADMK will be up for grabs.
With both the main Dravidian parties under a cloud, the parties next in the pecking order in terms of electoral clout - Vijayakanth's DMDK and the Vanniyar-dominated PMK - will be looking for gains in the ruins of the busted Dravidian votebank.
If the voters of Tamil Nadu are going to seek a national alternative, the BJP has a better chance than the decrepit Congress.
The only way to interpret GK Vasan's parachute jump is that he is positioning himself for a deal with one of the Dravidian parties or even the BJP in 2016, when state assembly elections are due. A splintering vote means every marginal player has some bargaining power with the bigger parties. This is why Vasan pressed the "eject" button before the Congress plane crash lands.
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