If there is one thing you can be sure of in the Delhi assembly polls of 7 February, it is this: it will not depend on how much effort a party has put into its manifesto.
Election trends usually pivot around one or two central issues. The micro-casting of small benefits to every segment of the electorate is hardly relevant. The 2014 Lok Sabha election was probably decided on two basic issues – the aura of competent leadership personified by Narendra Modi (in contrast with the effete Manmohan Singh and his bumbling UPA government), and the promise of development and achche din. The Congress party had, in fact, come up with a better-crafted manifesto. The BJP was the last to come up with one, and that too when the election process was well underway. The BJP manifesto had no impact on the result. Beyond the media, no one gave it much importance. The BJP still won.
The Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) has fallen into the trap of believing that offering 1,000 promises is better than focusing on the one or two things that really matter in an election. It has built up an entire laundry list of what people from various parts of Delhi want and aggregated these into a manifesto.
The AAP has made a lot of promises in its Delhi manifesto. AFP
The BJP, perhaps wisely, has abandoned the idea of launching a full-fledged manifesto, though a vision document is certainly planned. On the other hand, AAP has given its manifesto the full treatment. It is all things to all people, and has such lofty aims that it is essentially delusion posing as vision.
If elected, AAP tells us, it will demand full statehood for Delhi, seek control of the Delhi Police (now under the home ministry), and run the city-state with the help of nearly 3,000-3,500 mohalla sabhas (each comprising around 500-1,000 households). It will build Delhi’s own power plant, create 500 new schools and 20 new colleges, quadruple the number of secondary and tertiary public hospital beds, recruit 4,000 doctors and 15,000 paramedics, build two lakh public toilets, invest in public transport, and generally abolish contract labour everywhere.
In other words, Arvind Kejriwal plans to build a socialist paradise in Delhi at huge cost. And yes, he will do what he did the last time in his 49-day government: give every household 700 litres of free water and cut electricity tariffs by 50 percent. And, of course, he will legislate the draconian Jan Lokpal bill so that the corrupt are reined in.
In a 42-page manifesto, the question of how all this extravaganza is going to be funded gets almost no mention. The only indication that AAP will somehow try and marry finite resources with infinite promises comes towards the end, where it solves the equation with two glib statements.
First, the manifesto claims (unconvincingly) that “the common theme across all policy interventions is the following motto: big change without big spending.” It is good to know that power plants, hospitals and schools can be built without much moolah.
Then comes the humble admission: “However, we know our limitations, and realise that the only way to deliver our promises is to look for innovative solutions, spend efficiently and raise revenue.”
Ah, finally some realism. The only hint of an “innovative solution” turns out to be the discovery of a hidden goldmine (landmine?). AAP apparently has discovered about 200 acres of unused land with the Delhi Urban Shelter Improvement Board in Kasturba Niketan, Sawda Ghewra and Balaswa, which could be used for building housing for the middle and lower classes.
Well, it is unlikely that AAP will find too many of these hidden tracts of free land any time soon. We have to wait for the party to come to power – if that is what is in store for Delhi-ites on 10 February – to learn what other innovative ideas it can come up with.
However, a cursory look at the some of the more important things AAP has promised or demanded (from the central government) shows that beyond the promises, not much has been thought through.
For example, AAP wants control of the Delhi police. Let’s assume, the centre agrees to hand it over. But will Delhi be able to bear the annual cost of over Rs 5,000 crore to run this police force, when its overall budget is just Rs 36,700 crore, a significant chunk of which is already being devolved to the New Delhi Municipal Corporation, and the three constituents of the Municipal Corporation of Delhi? It is unlikely the centre will both hand over control of the police and the money to run it. Kejriwal will have to find his own funds.
Second, Kejriwal and AAP airily talk about creating over 3,000 mohalla sabhas in order to devolve decision-making to the bottom of the pyramid. But can the state do this without consulting its own municipal bodies, all of which are run by the BJP? A significant part of the sabhas will come under the jurisdiction of the three BJP-run corporations, and they surely cannot be kept out of the decision-making. These corporations were elected in 2012, and have an elected life till 2017.
Third, AAP talks of setting up its own power plant to take care of the peak load of 6,200 mw in the national capital. Delhi city clearly cannot house this plant, for no urban centre can run a coal-fired unit within its domain for fear of pollution. a gas-based unit will push up power costs. This means the power plant will have to come up in some other state which has the coal reserves to support it. Reliance Power in Mumbai gets a part of its power from Dahanu. But Dahanu is part of the same state (Maharashtra). Delhi will need the cooperation of some other state to house its power plant, which will supply power not to that state, but to Delhi. Given the acrimony with which Kejriwal has been handling all political parties, one wonders how he is going to get these permissions. Or the money to build the power plant, if he is going to halve power tariffs, an issue on which the discoms will surely go to court.
Fourth, AAP wants to build lots of houses for the poor, and it will also need land for Kejriwal’s various public projects (from 200,000 toilets to 500 schools to hospitals). But the party is opposed to changes in the Land Acquisition Act that the NDA government has proposed to make land easier to acquire. Delhi needs land from all surrounding states, and this job is done by the centre using the Delhi Development Authority (DDA).
It is difficult to see how the centre is going to hand over DDA to Kejriwal. Of course, he can start dharnas on each of his demands – for full statehood, for control of the police, for ownership of the DDA, etc – but then he is likely to fall into the same trap of being seen as an anarchist who does not govern and is forever hitting the streets.
Kiran Bedi has an easier task of getting these things done with the help of the centre.
Fifth, the mohalla sabhas could well become unmanageable if they are dominated by rogue political elements. It is not easy for ordinary citizens to spare the kind of time and effort needed every month to discuss every issue concerning their locality. Check how many housing society members even turn up for an annual general meeting. If enough public-spirited people are not there to manage the mohalla sabhas, they will come to be dominated by political or fringe elements, from Maoists to local toughs to party workers. Empowering 3,000-3,500 mohalla sabhas may sound nice and democratic, but this needs the development of a citizen spirit first. Delhi, as an collective of people from different parts of India, has little of that right now. One can also visualise party politics vitiating their functioning – and party involvement is more than likely if funds are going to be devolved to such sabhas. If other parties see AAP activists dominating these sabhas, they will muscle in too. The last thing we need is politicking and street aggression going down to the local mohalla level.
Sixth, the economic part of the manifesto promises one thing that is really welcome: freedom from inspector/raid raj, and the end of red tape. Kejriwal's promise of making it possible to set up a business or trade in one week will be revolutionary, if it happens. But he did not forget to promise the lowest VAT rate in India in five years' time. One wonders whether he expects a cut in VAT rates to boost revenues by enough to pay for some of his grandiose social spending plans. Not impossible, but unlikely. What has actually happened in Delhi is the hollowing out of domestic small-scale manufacturing, with manufacturers essentially becoming import-based resellers. They buy their stuff from China and merely label them as theirs. Manufacturing employment is falling in Delhi.
So, forget the manifesto. The Delhi election is probably going to be decided on one or two key issues, not the raft of promises made by Kejriwal.
One key issue could be whether electing an AAP government will end up creating a permanent atmosphere of strife with the centre for the next five years. Paanch Saal Kejriwal may be fine for some citizens, but not Paanch Saal Dharna or Paanch Saal Kenrda-Rajya takkar.
The problem with the AAP manifesto is that it is not achievable if AAP builds itself up as an anti-BJP, anti-centre party. This may weigh heavily in voters’ minds even if their heart is sometimes with AAP.
Recommended article: Chomsky: We Are All – Fill in the Blank.
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