From the November 2016 issue
Cheaper Batteries
One hundred and fifty dollars. That’s the magic number—the price for one kilowatt-hour’s worth of lithium-ion battery capacity—at which experts believe electric vehicles can become cost competitive with internal-combustion vehicles. The math requires several assumptions and approximations, but it generally goes like this:
According to Navigant Research, an internal-combustion powertrain (engine, transmission, and axle) costs between $4000 and $7000 per vehicle, and those figures will only rise with fuel-economy standards. “Over the next decade, we expect that range to increase by $1000 to $2000 as you add new emissions aftertreatment like particulate filters for direct-injection engines, 48-volt hybrids, and advanced multispeed transmissions,” said Navigant Research senior analyst Sam Abuelsamid.
At $150 per kWh, a 50-kWh pack could deliver 200 miles of range for $7500. Add in $1500 to $2000 for a motor, power electronics, and a single-speed gearbox, and an EV could reach cost parity without today’s tax credits. EVs also benefit from lower operating costs, a roughly $1000 annual advantage.
The $150 mark is hardly guaranteed. It’s difficult enough to pinpoint lithium-ion battery costs today, let alone a decade from now. Jon Bereisa, who worked on the EV1 and the Chevrolet Volt during his 35 years with GM, estimates that the Chevrolet Bolt’s 60-kWh pack is priced at $215 per kWh. Tesla’s head of investor relations, Jeff Evanson, claims Model S battery packs cost $190 per kWh, although that figure might be derived via Tesla math—accounting that often ignores R&D and capital investments.
Either way, the final $50 or so per kWh may be the most difficult to find. No one predicts significant leaps for today’s lithium-ion technology. Instead, cost reductions will be found in economies of scale and manufacturing improvements. Tesla’s Gigafactory is a $5 billion battery-building chisel that could chip away up to 30 percent of a pack’s cost if it comes together as planned by 2020. Abuelsamid predicts that EV and gas-vehicle costs will intersect shortly after that, in the mid-2020s. —Eric Tingwall
Better Infrastructure
More than 60 years ago, President Eisenhower’s Grand Plan laid the foundation for the Interstate Highway System that opened the country to the automobile. The shape of vehicles changed, and American life in the 20th century was redefined.
With several 200- and 300-mile electric vehicles slated to arrive in the next two years, today’s parallel to a pre-interstate America is our lack of a cohesive fast-charging infrastructure for EVs. If battery-electrics are to replace gasoline-fed vehicles, we’ll need a national, automaker-agnostic network of direct-current Level 3 fast charging, which will restore 75 to 100 miles of range in just 30 minutes.
Tesla’s Supercharger network of fast-charging stations is the best approximation of that vision for now. With thoughtful spacing of stations and a consistent interface, it comes the closest to providing the American “tank of gas” cadence. In about the time it would take to gas up and have lunch—roughly 45 minutes—a Tesla can recharge to drive another couple hundred miles, as many times as your family and fatigue permit.
For the foreseeable future, drivers of electric vehicles from other automakers face a very different experience, with a sometimes-maddening amalgam of chargers run by separate charging networks, using varied hardware. There’s also not much consistency among interfaces, with some of the chargers only accepting membership cards and fobs for proprietary networks.
Automakers, arguably the largest beneficiaries of a national charging network, haven’t stepped in to institute a better way. Instead, they’ve divided the infrastructure by promoting two competing charging standards and connectors, with Asian automakers supporting CHAdeMO and the Europeans and Americans favoring the Combined Charging System (CCS). Those systems typically charge at 50 kW, well below the 135 kW that most Tesla Superchargers are capable of providing, although both standards look ahead to 150-kW charging. That higher power level would allow a 250-mile EV to regain its charge in half an hour, versus about 80 minutes with 50-kW charging.
As in 1954, our best hope for a national infrastructure plan likely lies with the government. This past summer the White House announced a partnership between the Department of Transportation and the Department of Energy that will assess charging-station locations, study faster charging up to 350 kW, and form “a 2020 vision for a national network of fast-charging stations for EVs in order to facilitate coast-to-coast, nationwide zero-emissions travel.” That network can’t come fast enough, as we’re not willing to give up the one thing that’s quintessentially American: the freedom of the open road. —Bengt Halvorson
Betamax vs. VHS, 2017 Edition
Over a Barrel
At the moment, though, demand for these alternative powertrains has slowed. Partially and fully electric vehicles currently account for less than 3 percent of U.S. auto sales in their third year of declining market share. Blame cheap gas for the recent dip. Over the past 10 years, the market for electrified vehicles has generally followed the trend of fuel prices, lagging behind by one year. In 2012, gas reached its highest average price in the past decade at $3.55 for a gallon of regular. Hybrid, plug-in hybrid, and EV market share peaked the next year with just less than 600,000 of the 15.5 million vehicles sold. With gas prices on the cusp of dropping below $2.00 per gallon for 2016, the electrification movement won’t be getting any help from the oil industry anytime soon. —ET
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