Self-driving technology could prevent hundreds of thousands of traffic crashes, save millions of gallons of fuel, and free up time for countless numbers of commuters. It could also cost millions of Americans their jobs. As self-driving systems are deployed in widespread use over the next decade, many of their first applications will be in commercial vehicles, and as these technologies become more robust, they will likely endanger the employment of millions of truckers and taxi drivers.
While there’s a shortage of workers who drive for a living today, government leaders are urging the Trump administration to prepare for a transition period when automation puts the jobs of more than 2.5 million truck drivers at risk. Two Republican governors outlined their concerns Sunday during a meeting with new Transportation Secretary Elaine Chao.
“Autonomous vehicles are a tremendous opportunity, and at the same time, there’s this big-time workforce issue,” Massachusetts governor Charlie Baker said. “We need to be thinking far enough ahead on that one so that we don’t wind up creating a tremendous amount of economic hardship along the way.”
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“I’m very, very concerned about that and very cognizant
of those challenges.” – Elaine Chao, DOT Secretary
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His comments came during the closing session of the National Governors Association’s winter meetings in Washington, D.C., and echoed those made by Michigan governor Rick Snyder, who expressed hope that Chao would examine a swath of issues that arise as byproducts of automation, including upheaval in the insurance industry. He wants to partner with the DOT on examining retraining options for displaced workers.
“For truck drivers, we need to be looking farther out as to what are their career opportunities as we see these autonomous vehicles emerge. How do we make sure we’re planning far enough ahead so we don’t create job-loss opportunities for people?”
The nation’s unemployment rate remains steady at 4.8 percent per the latest numbers issued by the Department of Labor in January, and autonomous trucking isn’t an immediate threat to its stability. More than 1.6 million Americans are employed driving tractor-trailers and other heavy trucks while 826,000 more drive light trucks or are employed in delivery services. But the number of companies pursuing self-driving -ruck technology, including Otto, Peloton, and Embark, is growing. On Tuesday, Starsky Robotics announced its intention to join what has become a lucrative chase. Otto conducted a fully autonomous beer delivery last October that entailed a 120-mile drive along Interstate 25 in Colorado.
In her new role with the DOT, Chao may have a unique vantage point for balancing the Trump administration’s intent to promote innovation and strip regulation with the desire to preserve blue-collar jobs. She served as Secretary of Labor for eight years under George W. Bush. Chao kept her comments on the issue brief Sunday, but she did signal there may be a federal role in ushering workers from jobs with fading employment prospects into those more geared toward an autonomous age.
“I’m very, very concerned about that and very cognizant of those challenges,” she told Baker. “So we do have to transition people, and we do have to keep this in mind.”
Trump may be the one who confronts the reality of job losses caused by automated driving technologies, but the Obama administration saw it on the horizon. A White House report issued in December 2016 noted that self-driving systems would have a mixed effect on overall employment, boosting the productivity of some workers who could benefit from extra time in their cars. But others would face the loss of jobs, and even if they could retrain, they may not attain the same level of wages.
“A share of workers in a few isolated occupations—truck drivers and delivery service drivers, in particular—currently enjoy a wage premium over others in the labor market with the same level of educational attainment,” the report said. “They may not be able to regain this wage premium if displaced.”
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