Automakers rode the wave from last year’s all-time industry sales record with a modest three-percent year-over-year increase in March, for a total of 1.59 million cars. Yet maintaining that momentum is already proving tough. Even with two extra sales days in March, the seasonally adjusted annual rate dipped below 17 million for the first time since April 2015, according to WardsAuto. While we’re only just entering the second quarter, at this pace the industry is headed for 16.46 million total sales for 2016, down by 1.01 million in 2015 (and it’s not all due to Volkswagen). Let’s take a look.
Downtime at BMW, Mercedes, and Toyota
Across all automakers, U.S. car sales were down five percent while crossovers, SUVs, and light trucks increased by 10 percent. That certainly explains why Toyota sold a record number of Highlander and RAV4 models (up 15 percent each) and its Lexus SUVs were up 10 percent (with the NX at 25 percent and the old-school LX at 46 percent). Overall, Toyota was down three percent to 219,842 cars, with the Camry sinking nine percent (to a still-impressive 36,991 cars) and the Prius dropping 25 percent. Even the almighty Corolla fell eight percent.
BMW, including Mini, was down 13 percent to 34,795 cars. It was the same car/SUV story here, with BMW cars down 24 percent and SUVs (excluding the X1) up 32 percent. In the lower-roof category, only the 2-series (29 percent) and 7-series (16 percent) posted gains, while the X1 (132 percent) and X3 (191 percent) positively shot out of cannons. Every Mercedes-Benz car and SUV was down save for the GLA (15 percent), GLC/GLK (97 percent), GLE/ML (18 percent) and the G (three percent). Including vans and Smart Fortwo microcars, Mercedes fell four percent to 32,883 vehicles.
Honda Bucks the Crossover Trend
Unlike nearly every automaker, Honda’s cars were hotter than its crossovers in March. The Civic and the Accord posted gains of 13 and 8 percent, while the CR-V dropped by 10 percent compared to March 2015. Credit the Civic’s recent redesign and the Accord’s recent refresh for the boost, while the CR-V has lost the momentum it got when it was last updated for the 2015 model year.
The CR-V could also lose its best-selling SUV title if it continues this slower pace. Its 71,188 units numbers sold through March trail both the Ford Escape (71,594) and the Toyota RAV4 (76,122). The Civic, on the other hand, is winning in the compact-car sales race so far this year, beating the Toyota Corolla by a few thousand cars with its 87,303 units sold through March.
The Miata is the Bright Spot at Mazda Right Now
Our favorite Mazda, the 10Best-winning MX-5 Miata, was also the only Mazda to post a sales increase in March, recording a whopping 105 percent increase over last year with its 1090 units sold. The brand overall was down 27 percent last month, and all other Mazdas posted double-digit declines this month except for the new CX-3, which wasn’t on sale yet at this point in 2015. The score is similar when looking at year-to-date sales: the MX-5 is up by nearly 75 percent over this time in 2015, while the 3, 6, CX-5, and CX-9 models all lag behind last year’s numbers through March. The imminent sales introduction of the fully redesigned CX-9 will no doubt help.
It’s typical to see an uptick in Miata sales in the year following a redesign, and indeed, the numbers have been strong ever since the ND-generation car went on sale in mid-2015. We’re also eager to see how things might change when the new retractable-hardtop Miata RF goes on sale later this year. Even still, the Miata is only a small part of Mazda’s business in the U.S. Its 2409 units sold through March make up less than four percent of Mazda’s total sales here so far in 2016.
Fiat-Chrysler Has Best Sales in a Decade
CEO Sergio Marchionne says some strange things—and sometimes, he emails GM CEO Mary Barra with his thoughts—but he’s right about boosting Jeep production. The SUV brand carried 39 percent of FCA’s total March sales, which were up eight percent to 213,187. That’s the best since 2006. Somehow, the outdated Compass continues to top the charts; sales were up 53 percent. Total Jeep sales in March were up 15 percent. If FCA has already cut Dodge Dart and Chrysler 200 production to make way for more Wranglers, that would explain why both models took inordinately steep declines (at 44 and 68 percent). Nothing to see at Fiat, as the struggling division was down 24 percent. Maybe more music-video appearances with suggestive lyrics would help the 500L?
Nissan’s March Madness
MTSU in Nissan USA’s home state of Tennessee had a good March, upsetting Michigan State in NCAA men’s basketball tournament, and the automaker scored its own record in the month. A total of 163,559 vehicles (up 13 percent) were the company’s best ever, and that included three individual March sales records (Rogue, up one percent; Sentra, up 23 percent; and Versa, up 12 percent). Maxima sales more than doubled to 6588 cars, and somehow, hundreds of people noticed Nissan made a minivan and actually bought a Quest (up 95 percent to 1763 cars). Infiniti rose 10 percent to 13,775 cars, carried almost entirely by the QX crossovers and SUVs and topped with a nice 43-percent bump from the Q50 sedan. Expect more when the new QX30 and Q60 coupe reach dealers.
Ford beats GM . . . But Not if You Count Fleet Sales
Ford beat General Motors by a few thousand units in March, a slightly unusual turn in auto-sales-dom. But the outright numbers don’t tell the whole story. Of Ford’s 254,711 units sold, 37 percent of those were sold to fleets, while only 23 percent of GM’s 252,128 units were fleet sales. That means that GM’s overall retail sales for the month were actually higher than Ford’s by more than 30,000 units. This also deflates Ford’s overall 8 percent year-over-year gains a bit—looking only at retail sales, Ford was down five percent, while GM’s retail business was up seven percent.
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