By Mathew V
New Delhi: The public squabbling and the subsequent breakup between the BJP and the Shiv Sena over seat-sharing in Maharashtra is a direct outcome of the combine’s heady success in the recently concluded general election in May 2014. The spectacular victory spurred ambitions, most of it justified given the growth and survival needs of political entities, and its cascading effect on the politics of the state is clearly visible – there’s a double divorce; not only have the BJP and Shiv Sena parted ways after 25 years, the NCP-Congress alliance has disintegrated as well.
However, the BJP needs to be cautious about its optimism. Issues that influence assembly elections are different from those which impact the outcome of the Lok Sabha elections. The arithmetic and chemistry at play are different in both cases. Unlike the Shiv Sena, which has Uddhav Thackeray as a pan Maharashtra leader, the BJP does not have a leader with a similar appeal. The ‘Modi wave’ which had propelled the NDA to a victory in an unprecedented 42 of the 48 Lok Sabha seats, may be waning now. Moreover, local issues would dominate the voting behaviour. The BJP believes that the upcoming assembly election in October would be a repeat of the general election results. Its leaders perhaps read the signs too early and decided to rock the boat.
The five-cornered contest is a psephologist’s dream and nightmare. The split in the two alliances may also lead to a division of votes. There were many complementarities between the Shiv Sena and the BJP and they were seen as “natural allies”. The Hindutva vote may be split three ways with Raj Thackeray’s MNS playing spoiler in a few seats.
Maharashtra has now thrown all poll calculations off track.
Traditionally the Congress and then its breakaway faction the NCP has benefitted with Dalits (15%) and Muslims (12%) rallying around them. The numerically significant Marathas (30%) would also back them although recent election trends suggest that the NCP may be getting a higher share of the Maratha vote vis-à-vis the Congress.
The Shiv Sena and the MNS also are keen contestants for the votes of the Maratha manoos. The OBC vote at slightly more than 50% is critical as they could swing it in favour of any of the four principal parties in the fray. However, the BJP may walk away with a majority of the OBC vote in these elections if trends in the Lok Sabha are anything to go by.
The Hindutva vote will also be split between the BJP and the MNS. The Maratha manoos vote bank will also be split between a belligerent MNS and a beleaguered Shiv Sena. The BJP will be relieved that it will now be able to openly woo the North Indian vote bank which had largely stayed away from them due to the strong arm tactics of the Shiv Sena in the past. Mumbai-Thane region, which has a representation of about 60 seats, has a fairly large Gujarati population, which will now openly back the BJP. The Sena may be a loser in the Mumbai region as Gujaratis (20%) may abandon them completely.
However, the Shiv Sena may strongly counter attack by playing the regional pride identity. Pan Indian parties like the Congress and the BJP often make the mistake of underestimating the issue of regional pride and the sentiments attached to the son-of-the-soil narrative. The BJP is hoping that Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s appeal will see them through in the Mumbai-Thane region and in other urban centres of Maharashtra.
Voters who were accustomed to vote for the alliances are now unshackled and can now vote for any party them deem will win the elections. Geographically, the Shiv Sena has traditionally been weak in Vidarbha (60 seats) and North Maharashtra (36 seats). The BJP established complete dominance in the Lok Sabha elections in both these regions. The NCP and the Congress are no pushovers here and the seats will be keenly contested.
In the Marathwada (48 seats), a traditional Shiv Sena bastion, a three way fight between the NCP, Congress and the Sena appears likely. The BJP is not a strong player in the region. In the sugar belt of western Maharashtra (72 seats), the Congress-NCP have traditionally scored a higher tally than the Shiv Sena and the BJP. This region may continue to see fierce fights for control between the NCP and the Congress with the BJP also giving a tough fight in many of these seats especially due to their alliance partners. In Konkan (12 seats) there could be keen contest between all the players. At the stake is the future of Konkan strongman Narayan Rane who would be keen to show his clout after the drubbing his son received in the Lok Sabha elections.
In the Mumbai-Thane-Konkan belt and in a few urban centres, the dark horse may still be Raj Thackeray who had damaged the prospects of the Shiv Sena-BJP combine in the last assembly elections. He could fight on an aggressive Hindutva card, an anti migrant plank and a strong Marathi manoos platform to fire the imagination of his cadres and supporters.
The disintegration of old alliances and new social formations like the Dalit centric Republican Party of India (RPI), supporting the BJP and farmers’ organisations like Raju Shetty’s Swabhimaani Shetkhari Sanghatana allying with the BJP could see unexpected outcomes in these upcoming elections. What could well be interesting is if there is a last minute tie-up or even a tacit understanding between the NCP and the Shiv Sena, with both fighting on the regional pride plank. The best bet for the Congress is to play up the clean image of the chief minister, Prithviraj Chouhan although very few political observers seem to be giving the party a chance in these elections.
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