Wednesday, 2 July 2014

Sensex heads for cloud 26000; here's what analysts are recommending - Economic Times

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NEW DELHI: It looks like 'achche din' have started for Indian markets with benchmark indices rallying over 1 per cent each in trade on Wednesday to hit their respective record highs ahead of Budget 2014, due next week on July 10.

The benchmark BSE index rose as much as 384 points to hit its record high of 25,864.53, surpassing its previous life high of 25,735.87 hit on June 11. The NSE index too rose nearly 100 points to hit its fresh lifetime high of 7,732.40 in trade today.


The BSE Sensex is trading very close to its next crucial resistance level of 26,000 and expectations are that the index should be able to hit this level ahead of the Budget 2014. However, there are just five trading session left ahead of the main event die on 10 July.


The Street is already hoping for a more pragmatic Budget this time which focusses more on reducing fiscal deficit, boost growth and revive investment cycle from the newly elected Modi government and Finance Minister Arun Jaitley comments made on Tuesday lifted market sentiments further.


On Tuesday, the Finance Minister sent a strong signal that the July 10 announcement would shun populism, saying mindless give aways would burden the exchequer and lead to a high-tax society.


Jaitley warned that the country could not afford populism under the current circumstances with the economy growing less than 5 per cent and in the grips of a high fiscal deficit and high inflation.


"From Monday, we are seeing this bout of buying and global cues have also been supportive. Statements made by the Finance Minister yesterday (Tuesday) about fiscal prudence has also excited the market and this rally is not going to stop," said Devang Mehta, Senior VP & Head Equities-Sales, Anand Rathi Securities.


"So overall, there is good strength in the market, good participation and good inquiries. So, this market would continue to trend going forward," he added.


There is a lot of expectation built into the Budget, especially after the speech which the Honourable Prime Minister made in the Parliament where he talked about very pragmatic economic measures, reforms in manufacturing, job creation, agriculture, extremely stable tax regime, FDI, increasing ease of doing business in India.


Analysts see Nifty hitting levels closer to 8000 ahead of the Budget and for Sensex, they see the rally extending beyond 26,500 ahead of the Budget 2014.


"The pre-Budget rally can push Nifty to levels closer to 7880-7970 ahead of the event and for Sensex, the index could rally as much as 800-900 points in the same period," said A K Prabhakar, Independent Market Expert.


"Investors can target capital good, power and select PSU stocks which are likely to do well," he added.


Apart from reviving infrastructural development, the NDA government has also stated that creating more employment would be one of their key objectives. Development in infra sector would certainly help in creating employment.


Reforms by the Modi government are expected to drive the benchmark stock market index to a year-end target of 27,000 points, a US brokerage said.


"We continue to expect reforms to drive markets to our year-end target of 27,000 points though we could see near-term consolidation as it absorbs worries on a poor monsoon and the strife in Iraq," Bank of America Merrill Lynch (BofAML) said in its India strategy report.


We have collated views & recommendations on specific stocks or sectors from various analysts and their thought market movement pre and post Budget:


Neeraj Deewan, Director, Quantum Securities


After periods of consolidation the market has finally started doing quite well. More to do the index stocks which are much more in action as compared to what we are seeing in the index.


The index must have gone up by couple of percentage points but individual stocks are doing very well. We might have a rally going up to 8000 but that is a 3-4 per cent from these levels, so one needs to look at investment bets and look at stock specific ideas which can give you better returns.


So these 3-4 per cent pre-Budget rally does have a meaning; because, if you see this is just a small rally which is a part of many rallies will come in the next two-three years.


Sandeep J Shah, Associate Director, Motilal Oswal Private Wealth


This is a multiyear bull market and from that perspective, we will see the market continuing to go higher over the next three to five years with occasional corrections which will happen, especially if stocks rally significantly in anticipation.


This is just another pre-Budget rally, but the good news is that in the earlier part of the market rally pre-elections and post-elections, we had a lot of companies with high financial leverage or beaten down sectors rallying significantly.


Rajesh Iyer of Kotak Wealth Management


The market has gone up and if you look at it for the whole year, the Sensex is already up some 20 per cent, the midcaps are up some 40 per cent and the small caps are up 50 per cent.


Even from the election result date, if you look at the performance of midcaps and small caps, there is a very decent performance which has happened. So I would say, between now and the budget, we should be a little careful.


Technically, are looking at levels of anywhere between 7000 and 8000. So the median range for the Nifty as we see it is about 7500. We would really be a little careful as we get into the budget session.


R Venkataraman, MD, IIFL


If you look at the markets, post the elections of May 2014, the market had a very nice rally. So as of now, all eyes are on the budget. We have had a very nice pre-budget rally.


There had been some dark clouds, not the monsoon variety, but the other variety which were looking at the market, especially what happened in Iraq and the delayed monsoon. Touch wood, today we have seen monsoon actually touching the shores of Bombay.


So till the Budget, we expect a rally and then we will wait and watch and see what actually the Finance Minister delivers on July 10th, before taking a fresh call on the markets.


(Views and recommendations expressed in this section are the analysts' own and do not represent those of EconomicTimes.com. Please consult your financial advisor before taking any position in the stocks mentioned.)


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